Understanding the Aurora Dashboard
Welcome to your guide for reading the Aurora Dashboard. Whether you’re a seasoned skywatcher or a curious newcomer, this page will help you understand what each card means — and how it all comes together to help you catch a glimpse of the northern lights over Ireland.
Aurora Seeing Chance (ASC)
This is your main indicator — a simple percentage that combines space weather and local visibility to tell you how likely you are to see the aurora right now.
How it works:
ASC is calculated using two major factors:
- Aurora Power (based on solar activity and magnetic field data)
- Visibility Conditions (like cloud cover, darkness, and moonlight)
If either one is poor, the ASC will drop — both need to align for a good chance.
What the colours mean:
- Green (≥60%) – High chance — Go outside and check the sky!
Amber (20–59%) – Medium chance — Worth watching if skies are clear.
Red (<20%) – Low chance — Not likely to see aurora.
Aurora Drivers Card
This card breaks down the space weather forces driving the aurora. These are measured in real time from satellites and models.
Each line shows:
Driver Value x Weight = Weighted Contribution
Drivers explained
OV (Ovation Model)
- A real-time prediction model of auroral activity around Earth.
- High values (e.g. 60–100%) mean the auroral oval is strong and expanded.
HPI (Hemispheric Power Index)
- The total energy from solar wind entering Earth’s magnetic field.
- Over 50 GW = aurora possible; over 80 GW = very likely activity.
Newell Coupling
- A physics-based formula showing how well the solar wind connects with Earth’s magnetic field.
- Higher values mean stronger aurora potential, even if other values are borderline.
Ground (Irish Magnetometer Data)
- Real-time measurements from ground stations in Ireland.
- High ground activity (spikes or jumps) means energy is reaching us — a good sign for visibility.
Persistence
- A memory of recent auroral conditions.
- If things have been active, this score stays elevated a bit longer.
All drivers are combined (using the weights) to form a new raw “Aurora Power Score” — which is then adjusted for visibility to produce the final ASC – Aurora Seeing Chance.
Visibility Card
This shows how local sky conditions affect your ability to see the aurora. Upon page load (if you allow it) we use your current location to predict weather conditions and customise the Aurora Seeing Chance specific to your location.
3 key factors:
Darkness
- Is it night-time? This checks your local time and solar elevation.
- If it’s still twilight or daytime, this score drops to zero.
Moon Penalty
- A full or bright moon can wash out faint aurora.
- Lower scores if the moon is up and bright; higher if it’s low or new moon.
Cloud Penalty
- Based on real-time or forecasted cloud cover in your location.
- Fully cloudy = 0%; mostly clear = 100%.
These are combined into an Overall Visibility Score (0–100%) — which acts like a multiplier to the aurora power. Even if the aurora is strong, poor visibility will drop your ASC.
Solar Wind Speed
This card shows the speed of solar wind hitting Earth (measured in km/s).
- Under 400 km/s – Quiet solar conditions
- 400–600 km/s – Moderate; possible aurora
- 600–800+ km/s – Strong flow; great for aurora activity
The faster the solar wind, the more it energizes Earth’s magnetic field.
Bz Magnetic Component
Bz is one of the most important indicators. It tells us the direction of the Sun’s magnetic field relative to Earth.
- Negative Bz (southward) –
Great for auroras - Positive Bz (northward) –
Blocks activity
Thresholds:
- 0 to –5 nT → Minor
- –5 to –10 nT → Moderate
- –10 nT or lower → Excellent
A strong, sustained negative Bz opens the door for auroras to reach Ireland.
Solar Wind Density
This measures how many particles are in the solar wind (particles per cm³).
- Low density (<5) = weak signals
- Moderate (5–10) = reasonable
- High (>10–15) = energizes the magnetic field even more
Think of this as the “fuel” in the solar wind — more fuel = more energy available for aurora.
Hemispheric Power (GW)
This is the total amount of energy pouring into Earth’s magnetic field from space.
- 20–50 GW → Low to moderate
- 50–80 GW → Active aurora possible
- 80+ GW → High chance of visible aurora, even in mid-latitudes
This data comes from the NOAA satellite network.
Live Animation Cards
These include:
- SOHO LASCO C3 — Showing real-time solar activity and any Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
- Auroral Oval Map — A visual of where the aurora is strongest around the poles
- Magnetometer Charts — Real-time magnetic readings from Irish and Nordic stations
These help you visually see what’s happening in space right now.
Tips for Use in Ireland
- Even a 30–40% ASC can produce visible aurora in parts of Ireland.
- Look north, away from light pollution, and try long-exposure photos even if your eyes don’t see it
- Use our push notifications to be notified when ASC (Aurora Seeing Chance) jumps suddenly
